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FORTY YEARS AGO, quantum theorist and Nobel Laureate Richard Feynman became
the first individual to sight a new gloaming before the dawn. In his
famous 1959 lecture "There's Plenty of Room at the Bottom," Feynman
examined the infant field of materials science. With his usual sense of
humor, he hypothesized that as scientists learned more about how to make
transistors and other small-scale structures, we'd be able to make them
smaller and smaller. Eventually they would approach their natural limits,
at the edges of quantum uncertainty, stopping only when the atoms
themselves became too slippery, too unknowable, to be mechanically reliable.
Before molecular biology, such speculations seemed wild and unfounded, but
Feynman is once again proving to have been correct. The detailed study of
the structures of the cell revealed that nature had engineered machinery
from the insubstantial substance of a few atoms strung together; the
search for a "vital force" only revealed a bewildering array of mechanisms
- enzymes, ribosomes and other tiny structures - which demystified the
cell even as it revealed the incredible versatility of atomic-scale
chemistry.
Feynman postulated that once the tidy language of atoms had been decoded,
it would be possible to engineer molecules precisely, placing one atom
against another to create the smallest possible artifacts. What kinds of
tools might we create with these ultra-miniaturized forms? Feynman
imagined a molecular "doctor" that would be hundreds of times smaller
than an individual cell. It could be injected into a human body and go to
work, reading the health of cells, making repairs, and generally keeping
the body in perfect health.
Science fiction, his peers said. Absolute fantasy tossed off by the master
storyteller of physics. During the heights of the Industrial Age, "big"
carried an importance of its own - big science, big engineering projects,
big dreams. Even computers, in the 1950s, consumed whole floors of
buildings. But even as Feynman made his address, engineers at Texas
Instruments put the finishing touches on the first integrated circuits, and
the world began to grow small.
MARVIN MINSKY, THE FOUNDING FATHER of Artificial Intelligence, possessed a
mind fertile enough to nourish Feynman's dream. Throughout the 1960s and
70s, Minsky lead the world in future thinking. He consulted with Stanley
Kubrick and Arthur C. Clarke on the cinematic reality of HAL 9000,
directing a small squadron of graduate students into the emerging fields of
machine intelligence, and always speaking broadly about the nascent
possibilities of tiny technologies. By the mid-70s, when a graduate student
named K. Eric Drexler came to Minsky seeking a sponsor for his master's
thesis, Minsky's word was as good as gospel in the halls of MIT's AI
Lab. Drexler, fascinated with Feynman's tiny devices, wanted to explore
their possibility and Minsky - who had never forgotten the physicist's
vision - immediately agreed. Thank you very much, Drexler replied, and
went on to produce a vision that would come to shape the world.
When I attended MIT, in the early 80s, Drexler had just received his
Masters Degree in computer science and had, like some Pied Piper of
Cambridgeport, lured a small coterie of students into his orbit. Not yet
"hackers" (though they certainly practiced the art of hacking, in the
positive -- and now nearly lost -- sense of the word) they found in
Drexler's ideas a blueprint for a future as programmable as they could
imagine. In salons at his flat, Drexler entertained younger minds with a
set of ideas he christened nanotechnology. Bring a bottle of wine, pull up
a chair, and help design the future.
How could any red-blooded hacker resist such an opportunity?
I went to one of these salons d'idées, and by the end of the evening
considered Drexler a prophet of the next age of Man, a time when nearly
anything seemed possible. Nanomachines - or, more commonly, nanites -
which could repair cellular-level damage and guarantee a nearly eternal,
healthy existence; kitchen appliances which, fed on garbage, produced an
endless supply of high-quality "meat"; an inexhaustible supply of
incredibly strong building materials made of diamond, grown in forms of any
conceivable volume. Drexler promised a material world nearly entirely
subservient to the whim of the human imagination, programmed according to
need.
Like many others in Drexler's orbit, it took me many years to absorb the
full implications of nanotechnology. During this time Drexler worked hard
to explain this revolution to laymen - his Engines of Creation: The
Coming Era of Nanotechnology was published in 1986, with a forward by
mentor Marvin Minsky - and he moved from Cambridge to Palo Alto to pursue
doctoral work at Stanford. His thesis work, Nanosystems, published
in 1992, grounded the wild speculations of nanotechnology in the
hard-and-fast sciences of mechanics and atomic chemistry. A cookbook of
atomic-scale machinery, with gears, rotors and motors, Nanosystems
provided a codex atomicus for the nanomolecular universe.
Next, Drexler set out to change the world. But Drexler sensed that the
implications of his research would be as profound as the work itself, and
unlike Robert Oppenheimer, the Faust of our nuclear age, he laid the
consequences out alongside the potential. It's important, in any discussion
of nanotechnology, to bring these into full view, especially now that we
know enough about nanotechnology's realities to imagine some rather
harrowing nanotech futures.
TWO OF THE MOST CRUCIAL -- and, as yet, unbuilt -- devices in
nanotechnology are the nanocomputer and nanoassembler. The nanocomputer,
as its name implies, is a molecular machine capable of executing a string
of instructions and producing a result. In function, it differs little
from today's microprocessors, although it bears a curious resemblance to
the antique, mechanical computers designed by Charles Babbage in the middle
of the Victorian era, with rods and registers creating something like a
grown-up adding machine (an adding machine a million times smaller and a
billion times faster than any microprocessor yet designed).
Once the nanocomputer exists, it becomes possible to create a
nanoassembler, a device constructed at the atomic level, which can arrange
atoms precisely into most any desired form. Today, working at the atomic
level requires bulky and expensive Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM), which
uses electric fields to "push" atoms into position. But a nanoassembler
could simply "pluck" atoms from a "bin" and, like a post-industrial loom,
knit them into position. In our cells, ribosomes do something similar,
copying DNA into RNA, and then gathering the correct amino acids to create
the proteins which make up our physical nature. The nanoassembler, which
contains a nanocomputer at its core, does much the same thing, translating
instructions into molecules.
The nanoassembler is the Holy Grail of nanotechnology; once a perfected
nanoassembler is available, almost anything becomes possible. This, then,
is both the greatest hope and biggest fear of the nanotechnology community.
Sixty years ago, John Von Neumann - who, along with Alan Turing founded
the field of computer science - surmised that it would someday be possible
to create machines that could copy themselves; a sort of auto-duplication
which could lead from a single instance to a whole society of perfect
copies. Although such a Von Neumann machine is relatively simple in
theory, it has never been made. It's far easier, at the macromolecular
scale, to build a copy of a machine than it is to get the machine to copy
itself. At the molecular level, however, this balance is reversed; it's
far easier to get a nanomachine to copy itself than it is to create another
one from scratch. This is an enormous boon; once you have a single
nanoassembler you can make as many as you might need. But it also means
that a nanoassembler is a perfect plague. If, either intentionally or
through accident, a nanoassembler were released into the environment, with
only the instruction to be fruitful and multiply, the entire surface of the
planet - plants, animals and even rocks -- would be reduced to a gray goo
of nanites in little more than 72 hours.
The "gray goo problem" is well known in nanotechnology, where it acts as
a check against the unbounded optimism which permeates scientific
developments in atomic-scale devices. Drexler believes the gray goo
problem to be mostly imaginary, but does concede the possibility of a
"gray dust" scenario, in which replicating nanites "smother" the Earth in a
blanket of sub-microscopic forms. In either scenario, the outcome is much
the same. And here we encounter a technological danger unprecedented in
history: If we'd blown ourselves to kingdom come in a nuclear apocalypse,
the cockroaches at least would have survived. In a gray goo scenario,
nothing - not even the bacteria deep underneath the ground - would be
untouched. Everything would become one thing: a monoculture of nanites.
But despite the dangers, molecular nanotechnologists study how to build
machinery up from the atomic scale, while molecular biologists study how
to "strip down" the organelles of the cell into atomic-scale devices.
Given the immense commercial pressures of the biomedical industry, it seems
unlikely that molecular biologists will stop learning how we work, so one
way or another, it seems, we'll soon know enough about nanocomputers and
nanoassemblers to construct both.
This inevitability inspired Drexler to create a scientific and
educational foundation, The Foresight Institute, to act as a
clearing-house and think-tank for research into nanotechnology. In its 14
years, Foresight has grown to become a focal point for the community of
nanotechnology researchers - and ethical discussions about the nature of
the collective project have an important place in it. Public debate on
matters nanotechnological is virtually nonexistent. Today the field
belongs to research scientists and a growing community of amateurs. Only
with a community structure in place, Drexler argues, can we have any
degree of safety in a coming age of nanotechnology.
IN MID-OCTOBER, THE FORESIGHT INSTITUTE held their annual conference at a
mid-grade hotel in Santa Clara (which is Silicon Valley's ground zero for
the revolution in microelectronics and software). According to attendees,
there was a new buzz in the air; recent developments in molecular-scale
manufacturing have resulted in the invention of some of the very basic
components Drexler described in Nanosystems - the same components
which will be essential features of nanocomputers and nanoassemblers. The
pieces are coming together.
Another eagerly sought-after prize at the conference was a copy of Robert
Freitas' Nanomedicine. More than anything before it,
Nanomedicine attempts to articulate the promise of Feynman's
ultra-miniaturized "doctor," and lays out a path of step-by-step
technological hurdles which must be overcome on the way towards nanomedical
devices. Freitas is neither a doctor nor a molecular physicist. Despite
his post at the Institute for Molecular Manufacturing (IMM) - which
Drexler founded as the R&D and grant arm of Foresight -- he is really an
amateur, uncredentialed in the field he describes. This would be an
unrecoverable fault in more established fields of scientific discourse,
but nanotechnology still lives in the liminal gap between imagination and
reality. As in "Homebrew Computer Club" in the 1970s, there's plenty of
room for amateurs; in a sense, everyone working in the field was still an
amateur. The Homebrew Computer Club gave Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak a
platform to share their work and sell the Apple I, gave Lee Felsenstein the
opportunity to demonstrate the first portable computers, and legitimized
the amateur in a field dominated by corporate "big-iron" interests.
Foresight, the IMM, and other nanotechnology interests have a similar
feel - hackers on the edge of another revolution. And hackers are
necessary to its development for many of the same reasons.
NANOTECHNOLOGY IS, HOWEVER, still beneath the cultural radar. Even the
corporations sponsoring research into nanotechnology don't quite know what
to do with it. Dr. Ralph Merkle, who has done more than any other
individual, aside from Drexler, to advance the science of molecular
engineering, had a post at Xerox PARC, but he left it last month.
(Xerox wanted Merkle to split his focus between nanotechnology and
public-key cryptography, a field which Merkle helped to define. But
Merkle, unwilling to give his intellectual passion half-duty, left to
become a Research Fellow for the Zyvex Corporation, the first of a new
generation of nanotechnology startups.) Meanwhile, Congress, which seems
resistant to funding any R&D that doesn't have immediate benefits for the
military or medicine, doubled government funding for nanotechnology
research. Some of that money will shower down on NASA's Ames Research
Center in Mountain View, California, where a small team is working on the
design of nanocomputers. Why is NASA interested in nanotechnology? Size,
mostly. Current computers, such as those found on the Mars Pathfinder, are
large, power-hungry and prone to failure. Using nanobots, NASA could send a
hundred million tiny eyes and ears to the Martian surface in a package
weighing a few grams. Who cares if half of them fail? There are still 50
million left!
The nanobot is still just a dream; to create one, researchers will have to
crack the problem of the nanocomputer - the focus of NASA's research
group. It's a problem they don't expect to solve until around 2011
(but then, this estimate was made back in 1997, a lifetime ago in
nanotechnology). But every day researchers are posting new breakthroughs,
gleaned from materials science or molecular biology, that are propelling
them towards a future we'd find nearly unbelievable.
Forty years after Feynman, the promise of nanotechnology looms as the
most important technological development in our history. It promises
perfection and apocalypse. In the perfect worlds of fantasy science
fiction, all want has been satisfied and all disease cured. Without the
inequities that produce politics or the sufferings that drive melodrama,
the human story rings hollow, as if our pains give birth to our drives. It
makes for bad storytelling: no room for heroes or noble acts, no sacrifice
to create moral legends. But the approach to such a perfect world seems
fraught with pitfalls, the ascent to perfection allowing ample
opportunity for the darker forces of our nature to present themselves in
their full dimension.
If this were an entirely hypothetical question, we could hand it off to the
ethicists and moralists, who could study the problem for a thousand years.
But in less than a thousand weeks, we will be confronting these questions
collectively, and no less than the fate of humanity hangs in the balance.
Already "Nightline" spends a week examining the impact of bio-terrorism in
the American city, and CIA analysts lie awake at night wondering who among
our enemies (and our friends) has the capacity to wreak destruction on our
very cells. If the threat ended there, if we could simply inoculate
ourselves against the terrors that our neighbors might infect us with, we
could content ourselves in believing that the future has much the same form
as the past, that we know the shapes of the things that go bump in the
night. But more and more it becomes clear that we are opening into a new
day, and everything we know matters not at all.
Mark Pesce is the co-inventor of VRML (Virtual Reality Modeling
Language) and Chair of the Interactive Media Program at the University of
Southern California's School of Cinema-Television. His book, The
Playful World: Interactive Toys and the Future of the Imagination will
be published by Ballantine Books in September 2000.
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