FOR A FEW MINUTES on January 20, 2001, moments after George W. Bush was sworn in as President, the White House web site re-launched with pictures of the new Commander-in-Chief, the usual ceremonial dressing -- and a few half-finished pages that featured the memorable tagline: "insert meaningful text here." For a certain demographic of Gore and Nader supporters, that slogan could have been aptly applied to the entire Bush campaign: a tongue-tied half-wit mouthing empty rhetoric about "courage, compassion, and strength." According to that portrait of the forty-third President -- best embodied by Will Ferrell's SNL caricature -- if "insert meaningful text here" had mistakenly rolled across the TelePrompter during last night's special address to Congress, Bush would have happily broadcast the words to both assembled houses, and not even noticed the mistake.

But the speech that arrived instead -- like the first thirty days of the administration -- should give pause to those of us who've centered our critiques of Shrub around his intellectual shortcomings. Confident, effortlessly bipartisan, and funny, the speech may not have been as well-delivered as the last few major Clinton addresses, but it certainly exceeded the rhetorical forays of Bush Sr., who after all had his own aphasiac tendencies. (Reaching unsuccessfully for the word "successes," he once told a shocked band of reporters that he'd had sex with Ronald Reagan.) Liberals and progressives will still have plenty to object to on a close reading. Bush called his charity-based anti-poverty "a hopeful plan" -- which should translate to: "hopefully someone else will deal with this." And the speech's natural focus on the budget left the telltale question of campaign finance reform mostly unanswered. But the overall impression was that of a politician not only at the top of his game, but perhaps playing a game we hadn't suspected him of having until now.

The exceeding-expectations story is as old as W.'s first term as governor, of course, and there's little doubt the honeymoon of these first two months will fade -- assuming White House logs don't reveal evidence of pre-pardon orgies with Susan McDougal, thereby distracting the press corps for another two months. But the relative smooth sailing of this first leg, and the impressive performance last night, also points to a key failing in Bush's opposition to date, one that mirrors the right's chronic, and usually chronically ineffective, attacks on Clinton. I'm thinking here of the "Slick Willie" moniker and the trope of Hillary Clinton as radical-lesbian-feminist, the picture of the Clintons as closeted socialists who put on a centrist face just to get elected, but who secretly wanted to institute a Five Year Plan for mandatory abortions. While the character assault on Bill Clinton had an impact -- mostly thanks to Clinton himself, of course -- the "Slick Willie" critique preached almost exclusively to the choir. The Clintons were clearly centrist Democrats in word and deed -- they'd built their entire presence in the Democratic party establishment on the idea of reforming the party itself. Tarring Clinton as a draft-dodging, pot-smoking radical just made the accuser look hopelessly deluded -- and yet the far right kept hammering away at that image, while Clinton's approval ratings soared to nearly uncharted heights.

You can see the beginnings of a similar mistake in the speed with which Ferrell's mentally-challenged fratboy impression has become the dominant take on Bush in the popular culture. It's an incredible impression, of course, and seeing Ferrell lean into the camera, eyes squinting, and say "strategery" will never tire, no matter how many times MSNBC airs the clip. There's something comforting in thinking that the President you oppose is an idiot, just as it's comforting to think that the moderate President you oppose is a closet radical. But both are fantasies, and the longer you cling to them, the less effective your opposition becomes. Sure, Bush can't tell you the difference between the Butterfly Effect and the Butterfly Ballot, and even after the marked improvements visible last night, he may continue mangling his words indefinitely. But as our first chief executive to hold an MBA, he may also prove to be a competent manager, a good judge of character, and -- like his predecessor -- a politician with a knack for winning elections. If the Democrats want to ensure that W. doesn't win the next one, they may have to start by taking him seriously for a change.